China's H1 GDP expands 5.3%, demonstrating strong resilience amid complex global environment

China's economy posted a solid 5.3 percent growth in the first half of 2025, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, demonstrating the strong resilience of the world's second-largest economy despite a complex global environment. 

In the second quarter alone, the economy expanded by 5.2 percent compared with the same period last year, easing slightly from the 5.4 percent growth recorded in the first quarter.

China's economy withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges. The production and demand grew steadily, employment was generally stable, household income continued to increase, new growth drivers witnessed robust development and high-quality development made new strides, helping ensure overall social stability, according the NBS.

Generally speaking, with the more proactive and effective macro policies taking effects in the first half of the year, the national economy maintained steady growth with good momentum, showcasing strong resilience and vitality, said Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of the NBS at a press conference on Tuesday.

The steady 5.3 percent growth achieved in the first half of 2025 keeps China well on course to meet its full-year target of about 5 percent growth, an analyst said. This performance also serves as a direct rebuttal to pessimistic narratives by some foreign media outlets, reaffirming the strength and resilience of the Chinese economy. 

With GDP growth projected to outpace most major economies in 2025, China is set to reinforce its position as both a driver of global growth and a source of stability amid international uncertainties, the analyst said. 

Growth highlights

Retail sales of consumer goods grew 5 percent year-on-year to 24.54 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, while the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size was up 6.4 percent, and fixed-asset investment climbed by 2.8 percent, according to the data released by the NBS.

In the first half of the year, the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter, according to the NBS.

Manufacturing continued to serve as a key driver of economic growth, supported in part by steady external demand. The momentum from new quality productive forces became increasingly evident, observers noted. 

Tuesday's major economic indicators also align with the resilient performance of China's foreign trade. 

In the first six months, China's total merchandise trade rose 2.9 percent year-on-year to $3.04 trillion, driven by the country's strenuous efforts to optimize its foreign trade structure and stabilize economic growth, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs on Monday. 

This shows that the impact of short-term factors such as the US tariffs is fading, and with the dual support of the Chinese government's effective policies and China's strong industrial fundamentals, foreign trade has shown a positive trend of recovery, an expert said.

Hu Qimu, deputy secretary-general of the Forum 50 for Digital-Real Economies Integration, called the second-quarter results "hard-won," noting that they reflect the inherent resilience of China's economy and the ongoing appeal of its massive market, despite rising global volatility and increasingly protectionist stances, highlighted by the US tariffs.

The first-half GDP growth reflects the strong resilience of China's economy, underpinned by its comprehensive industrial system and vast market capacity — both of which provide a solid foundation for withstanding external shocks, Hu said.

However, challenges persist, mainly driven by global headwinds such as US tariffs, Hu said, adding that further policy measures are needed to keep growth on track to meet the full-year target.

Further efforts needed to endure momentum

China's steady growth comes at a time when concerns about a potential US tariff-driven slowdown loom in many parts of the world. 

Responding to media questions about measures to mitigate the impact of the tariffs on the Chinese economy, Sheng said high tariffs have increased trade costs and are detrimental to economic and trade growth.

Since the beginning of this year, in response to changes and pressures in the external environment, the Chinese government has taken proactive and adaptive measures, placing greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic economic cycle, Sheng said.

On the further note, the NBS official said that efforts have been intensified to implement more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand and boost consumption. "We will continue managing our own affairs well and use the stability and certainty of the Chinese economy to navigate external uncertainties," he said.

The second-quarter performance injected much-needed stability into the fragile global economy, reinforcing China's role as a key driver of the global recovery, experts said.

The global growth environment is under pressure, with obstacles to trade, disruptions to logistics, and rising raw material prices all posing challenges to China's economy. Yet despite these headwinds, China's export performance has remained in line with expectations, said Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University.

At the same time, booming sectors — particularly the application of digital and green technologies — have fueled significant breakthroughs across industries, with rapid progress in areas like new-energy vehicles, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence, said Cao.

In particular, Chinese companies have quickly filled gaps in the semiconductor industry, despite trade blockages and sanctions, demonstrating the speed of the country's technological progress, the expert said.

"China's economic performance this year marks a noticeable recovery and upward momentum," Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times. He attributed the improvement largely to more robust macroeconomic policies, pointing to a series of monetary easing steps, including multiple reductions in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates. The expert also noted a marked increase in fiscal spending as a contributing factor.

In the second half of the year, the economy is projected to sustain its growth momentum, supported by further opening-up measures, robust trade and supply chains, and increased market diversification, keeping it on course to achieve the full-year economic growth target, experts said.

Looking at the second half of the year, Sheng also said that despite considerable external uncertainties and internal pressures from structural adjustments, we believe there is solid support for China's economy to maintain steady growth.